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Historically Nadal has dominated on clay (especially Roland Garos - winning there the last 4 years) and Federer on hardcourt (and grass) and it has been this distinct court domination that has kept the #1 and #2 in balance with each other. Typically Nadals heavier topspin has been a powerful tool on slower surfaces but has often fallen short on hard surfaces making it easier for opponents to return flat and hard. On clay, Nadals determination and physical prowess have kept him on top on this slower more physically demanding surface. It now appears that Nadal has changed his style slightly and this could be the reason for his recent success on hard surfaces. If you look back at the recent Australian final, many of Nadals forehand and backhand topspin strokes were landing eerily close to the baseline, a stark difference from matches several years ago where his topspin would force the ball to land often before the service line. Federer was literally forced to half-volley from the baseline on returns or be forced
to play in rallies from far behind the baseline due to the high bounce of Nadals heavy topspin upkick. In addition to this, Nadal has been winning more points on his serve - he’s hitting the ball harder and placing better. In 2003, Nadals average service speed was a meek 99 miles per hour but between 2005-2007 it was 107 miles per hour.
Federer has not seen such improvements to his game. There could be numerous reasons for this. For one thing, he has suffered with mono for most of 2007. Perhaps more importantly he may have become a little complacent having held the number one position for so long. Keep in mind as well that he is older than Nadal, and has had time to weed out almost all weaknesses in his game – there may not be much room for improvement. Most will admit that Federer’s game is almost flawless. He glides around the court with relative ease and his court positioning is possibly the best in the game. He can play all positions of the court like a master and hit with a wide variety of spins and angles. These is really nothing left to improve. The only area that some experts have pointed out as Federer's Aquiles heal is the effectiveness of his one-handed backhand against a high kicking topspin shot. It is somewhat ironic that his nemesis just happens to have a topspin kick to it unlike anyone else in the game. Nadal has been very s
uccessful against Federer by pounding this backhand with topspin shots and serves that kick high and make a one-handed backhand difficult.
Federer on the other hand has an incredible backhand slice that makes the topspin shot much more difficult. Federers serve, which has typically been a key part of his game has not been up to it's usual standard over the past year. In fact, it might be said that Nadal beat Federer at Wimbledon due to the fact that he managed to break Federer's serve 4 times, twice more than Federer. In the recent Australian Open, Federer’s first serve percentage was only 51% compared to Nadal’s 66% and considering that he won the point 73% of the time that his first serve went it, he could have averted several breaks of serve had he been serving up to par. Typically Federer has a first serve percentage of over 65% On the reverse side, Federer was only able to manage 33% for the match on break point conversions.
Perhaps the most important factor of the changing dynamics of this Nadal -Federer rivalry is that of confidence and momentum. Sometimes players get on a streak and are literally unbeatable for a time. I believe that Nadal is on such a streak but it cannot last forever. Federer has in my eyes has somewhat of a confidence problem of late. He has become so accustomed to winning everything that he has become rattled by losing his #1 position and many of his personal goals. I personally believe that 2010 will see the development of a new rivalry, that of Djokovic and Nadal who are almost the same age; 21 and 22 respectfully. Age is a factor and tennis players do have a shelf life. Very few perform well beyond the age of 30 and most would consider 27 (Federer) to be either at the top of or even on the declining end of the physical stamina curve.
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